阅读量:
The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of marketing at Dura-Socks, Inc.
"A recent study of Dura-Socks customers suggests that our company is wasting the money it spends on its patented Endure manufacturing process, which ensures that our socks are strong enough to last for two years. We have always advertised our use of the Endure process, but the new study shows that despite the socks' durability, our customers, on average, actually purchase new Dura-Socks every three months. Furthermore, customers surveyed in our largest market — northeastern United States cities — say that they most value Dura-Socks' stylish appearance and availability in many colors. These findings suggest that we can increase our profits by discontinuing use of the Endure manufacturing process."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
快速破题有两个核心技巧,今天讲技:寻找关键字眼,迅速“对号入座”:
1、当我们看到“average”,就可以迅速判定文中大概率会出现平均值问题。比如本文中的“our customers, on average, actually purchase new Dura-Socks every three months”一句中,我们可以迅速发现:3个月的买新周期是个平均值。也就是说可能有的顾客的购新周期可能以年计,同时有的顾客的购新周期少于3个月,所以,如果只是以3个月的平均周期作为参考的话,就会损失那一批(可能甚至是数量极大的一批)购新周期以年计的顾客。
2、但我们看到“recent”或者其它有关时间的描述词,就可以迅速判定文中大概率会出现时间问题。比如文中的“A recent study”告诉我们这个研究的结果可能只对于最近一段时间的情况有效,而对“超过最近的将来时间”而言,这个研究的结果可能是无效的。或者,这个最近的研究结果只能代表“最近一段时间作为从过往到将来的很长一段时间内的偶然情况”,也就是说这个最近的研究不具备普遍适应性/代表性。
3、当我们看到有关地点/地区的描述词时,就可以迅速判定文中大概率会出现地点问题。比如文中的“northeastern United States cities”透露出作者仅仅考虑了美国东北地区的市场(虽然是的市场),忽略了全美其它地区的情况。
以上三处是特别明显的“看字眼,识问题”,那么还有哪些呢?我们继续看到比如: “our largest market”中“的”这个概念是模糊的。顾客最多可以叫“的市场”, 销售数量也可以叫“的市场”,销售额还是可以叫“的市场”,但是,顾客数量、销售数量(卖掉多少双袜子)、销售额是三个不一样的概念,对应产生的利润并不相同。于是,这里就出现了“偷换概念/概念模糊问题”。 同时,我们还可以在“A recent study of Dura-Socks customers”中发现样本问题(有多少顾客?什么性别、年龄段、工作类型或收入水平的顾客?),在“they most value Dura-Socks' stylish appearance and availability in many colors”中发现偷换概念问题(most不等于all),在“we can increase our profits by discontinuing use of the Endure manufacturing process”中发现它因问题(决定利润的因素有许多)。 总之,本文是一个典型的,我们可以通过寻找关键字眼的方式,来迅速找到文中的逻辑疑点。当然,本文只是一例,我们下一讲还将看到更多来巩固我们对于这个技巧的认知。