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「Question No. 22」

The brief passage:

A recently issued twenty-year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates. Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, food-processing companies also add salicylates to foods as preservatives. The twenty-year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants. At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so. Based on these study results, some health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future. 

The instruction:

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

读完brief passage后立刻判断：全文论述的conclusion：是一个prediction：residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future.

Introduction

略

Body

（以4个点为例）

首先，提问（但是不一定以问句形式）→  The immediate question is whether salicylates have the medicinal properties that aspirin has. 同时，简要分析，引导出对原文逻辑不利的答案 →  Although they are in the same chemical family as aspirin, they may have completely different medicinal properties. 然后，明确（以对原文逻辑不利的答案）回答问题 → That is to say, aspirin may treat headaches, but salicylates cannot.

首先，提问（但是不一定以问句形式）→  A further question is whether or not the result of the study is valid. 然后，（以对原文逻辑不利的答案）回答问题→ In fact, the result may be invalid. 同时，解释答案背后的逻辑 → There may be flaws in the design of the study. For example, the data collected, the number of headaches, during the study may be inconsistent with the number of headaches that actually happened, because the collection depends on the residents’ reports, which may be inaccurate. The invalid result would render the alleged decline in the number of headaches dubious. 

与上一点讨论形成关联 → Even if the decline is true, the correlation that the study has found is also dubious. 首先，提问（但是不一定以问句形式）→  The question is whether there are other factors contributing to the decline in the number of headaches. 然后，（以对原文逻辑不利的答案）回答问题 →  As a matter of fact, other factors are highly likely since the study spans a twenty-year period. 同时，解释答案背后的逻辑 →  During the twenty years, Mentia residents’ lifestyle or dietary structure might have changed, and it may not be the increased commercial use of salicylates but those changes that contributed to the decreased incidence of headaches. 

首先，提问（但是不一定以问句形式）→  Another question is whether or not salicylates will, when they are used as flavor additives, lose their medicinal properties that are useful in treating headaches. 然后，（以对原文逻辑不利的答案）回答问题 → In fact, salicylates as flavor additives may be useless in treating headaches. 同时，解释答案背后的逻辑 →  When salicylates are added as food preservatives, their therapeutic properties in treating headaches may be retained; however, when they are used as flavor additives, the processing may deprive them of the properties.