China's star blogger on 2012.

中国明星博主对2012年的展望。

He's the man man

真正的男人

Han Han, one of the most widely read bloggers in a country that censors its independent voices, is a rebel who does not really seek to overthrow anybody, a troublemaker who does not want to cause too much trouble. He sees, with dismay, much the same limitations among his readers in China. Looking ahead to 2012, he sees harder times for the Chinese people, but he does not foresee any crisis, nor any hope for improvement from the coming new "arrangement" of party leaders, because the people ultimately are willing to accept hardship.

在一个审查独立声音的国度里，韩寒是拥有最广泛读者的博主。他叛逆，但并不真去推翻任何人；他是个麻烦制造者，但并不想制造太多的麻烦；他沮丧，他在中国的读者面临各种相似的限制。展望2012，他认为中国人民处境将更为艰难，但他没有对任何危机作出预言。对于即将履新的新一届党的领导人或将有所改进，他不做任何期许。因为人民最终会安之若素。

The Economist interviewed Mr Han in Zaozhuang, at the mid-point of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail line. He had just finished second in a weekend rally race, two seconds behind first place. When he explains why the coming change in Communist Party leadership does not mean much in itself, he underscores his point with racing terminology.

在京沪高铁沿线的中点站——枣庄，《经济学人》采访了韩寒。他在刚刚结束的周末汽车拉力赛中名列第二，仅落后名2秒钟。在解释为何即将到来的共产党领导层换届本身意义不大时，他用赛车术语强调了其观点。

"Each time there is a new leader, the Chinese people have new hopes. They hope they will become very open leaders, and then as before, they don't do anything. I think we still have to depend on those writers and artists to do their part," he says. "Just like racecar driving: no push, no change. So I think we still need to depend on ourselves to obtain greater open space."

他说，“每当新领导人上任时，中国人民总是满含新的希望。人民希望他们会是非常开放的领导人，然后就像从前一样，没有任何变化。我认为我们还是需要依靠那些作家和艺术家贡献自己的力量。这就像赛车：没有推力，就没有改变。所以我认为我们依然需要依靠自己来获取更大的开放空间。”

For people like him, 2012 will be a hard year: "For a writer, that period is the most uncomfortable because the controls from the party, from the government, will be tighter than in normal times," he says. And most others won't bother to push, because "Chinese people's demands are lower," he says. They are "meek".

对像他这样的人来说，2012将是艰难的一年。他说，“对作家来说，那一时期将会是最不舒服的，来自党、来自政府的控制将比平常时期更为严厉”。其他大多数人都明哲保身，因为“中国人民的要求愈发低了。”他们是“温顺的”。

What about all of the noisy clamour, then, on Sina Weibo, a microblogging  service that, despite being monitored and censored, was an impressive catalyst for discontent after the Wenzhou train crash of 2011? Could that portend something more challenging for the government in 2012? He dismisses that notion with the clever cynicism that has marked his writing since he was a teenager.

那么，尽管被监控和审查，2011年温州动车事故之后新浪微博上沸反盈天的抗议是否让人印象深刻地催化了公众的不满？那是否预示着对2012年的政府将带来更多的挑战？他以在青少年时代写作就鲜明表现出来的机智老练避开了这一观点。

Mr Han, 29, made his name a decade ago as a novelist, and has since built a following of millions online for his blog postings (the most subversive of which are quickly taken down, including a scathing commentary on the Wenzhou crash). He can express himself powerfully in just a few characters: his blog post on the awarding of the 2010 Nobel peace prize to a dissident, Liu Xiaobo, was merely an empty set of quotation marks. His problem with Weibo is that users are content merely with the act of transmission.

韩寒今年29岁，十年前以小说家身份扬名立万。自那以后以博客帖子赢得粉丝无算。（煽动性的帖子通常很快就会被“拿掉”，包括温州动车事故后的尖锐评论）。他能以聊聊数语有力地表达自己的看法，他的博客仅用了一个没有文字的引号提及异议分子刘晓波获得2010年诺贝尔和平奖一事。对于微博，他认为用户仅仅满足于转载行为，而非付诸行动。

"It doesn't bring about any real change or progress. You see a lot of stuff about the Wenzhou incident, you feel everyone's really angry, you feel like you could go open the window and you would see protesters on the street," Mr Han says. "But once you open the window, you realise that there's nothing there at all."

韩寒说，“微博不能带来任何实质性的改变或进步。关于温州动车事故，你看到很多东西，你能感受到每个人真实的愤怒，你感到自己可以打开窗户并看到人们在街上游行，但是当你打开窗户时，你会发现一切照旧。”

Mr Han says he will try to do more in 2012 himself, as a writer, but within limits. He plans a new magazine but says it won't be too controversial (his first try at a magazine, in 2009, was quickly shut down by authorities). He does not want to attract more attention from China's security services, because he does not want hassle for those around him. As much as he derides the limits of Weibo, Mr Han warns people not to expect too much from him in 2012.

韩寒称，作为作家，自己将在2012年多做些事情，不过都会适可而止。他计划创办一份新的杂志，但是说杂志不会有太多争议（他在2009年对杂志的初次尝试迅速被被当局“拿下”）。他并不希望引起中国安全部门更多的注意，为了身边的亲友，他不愿惹什么麻烦。尽管嘲笑微博的局限性，韩寒提醒2012年人们不要对他寄望过高。

"I won't do anything terribly radical because I believe that it's really like motor racing. My first point is 'no push, no change', but my second point is, if you push too hard, maybe your time will be slower. And maybe you push much too hard and crash."

“我不会做任何很过激的事情，因为我认为这就像赛车，我的要义是‘没有推力，就没有改变’，但是我的第二要义是欲速则不达，推力过猛也许会发生事故。”

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