GRE—argument96： 羊驼外套应该复产吗？

　　【The short passage】:

　　96.The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.

　　“Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulty obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our popular alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. Given the outcry from our customers when we discontinued this product and the fact that none of our competitors offers a comparable product, we can expect pent-up consumer demand for our alpaca coats. Due to this demand and the overall increase in clothing prices, we can predict that Sartorian's alpaca overcoats will be more profitable than ever before.”

　　【The instruction】:

　　Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

　　【The sample answer】:

　　Sartorian, a company manufacturing men’s clothing, predicts that there would be a promising market for alpaca overcoat. Without verifying questions pertinent to its demand and profit-making, it is unsafe to predict the aforementioned information. Answers to these questions should be given to substantiate the persuasiveness of the argument before giving a tenable prediction （开头段准确回应题目指令）.

　　The resuming of production is thought to be well-accepted by customers. This would be more plausible when several questions are detected. Since this company cooperated with suppliers offering high-quality wool fabric before, which might be a prerequisite for customers’ satisfied with their products. Now this company deals with a new fabric supplier. The thing is: is the new supplier able to supply wool fabric as high-quality as before? (提问前做好铺垫，这个问题提的就自然多了) Assuming it is, the requirement and aesthetics of customers now are likely to differ from their counterparts more than five years ago. How would they define a piece of ‘high-quality’ overcoat at present? Their attitudes towards this type of alpaca coat might have altered （特殊疑问句，建议稍作解释）.Besides, why did they give an outcry when the production of alpaca overcoat was ceased?They did not necessarily feel the discontinuity a pity but merely had not received their orders yet. Or these products were sold at unprecedentedly low price before the production was suspended (对于特殊疑问句why的分析可以多给细节). The resuming of the production is thus unable to ensure this company could snatch desirable market shares.

　　The other prediction is that Sartorian’s alpaca overcoat will earn more profits than ever before.Since the overall prices of clothing increase, the profits made in clothing industries could be expected （注意被动语态的使用）. However, is it safe to predict the increase of prices in men’s clothing? （以全概偏） It is highly suspicious men’s clothing is sold at higher prices. Otherwise there would be competitors supplying comparable products to snatch more market shares. For another, do other the determinants of profit-making in Sartorian remain the same? Namely, costs on raw materials, effectiveness of marketing campaigns, proficiency of manufacturers or customers’ dressing style and aesthetics, any of which changing, Sartorian tends to have an uncertain future in money-making (典型的忽略其他变量). Before substantiating these variables, it is unsafe to predict Sartorian’s alpaca overcoat will be more lucrative.

　　Conclusion

　　(略)

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