Nearly half of Americans say that they definitely or probably couldn't come up with $2,000 in 30 days, according to new research, raising concerns about the financial fragility of many households.

一项新的研究显示，近一半的美国人说，如遇紧急情况，30天内他们肯定或可能无法拿出2,000美元，这加深了人们对许多美国家庭财务脆弱性的担忧。

In a paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Annamaria Lusardi of the George Washington School of Business, Daniel J. Schneider of Princeton University and Peter Tufano of Harvard Business School used data from the 2009 TNS Global Economic Crisis survey to document widespread financial weakness in the U.S. and other countries.

Getty Images许多美国人不能承受一笔意外开销。国家经济研究局（National Bureau of Economic Research）发表的一篇论文中，乔治华盛顿大学商学院（George Washington School of Business）的陆莎迪（Annamaria Lusardi），普林斯顿大学的施耐德（Daniel J. Schneider）以及哈佛商学院（Harvard Business School）图法诺（Peter Tufano）利用市场研究公司TNS2009年针对全球经济危机调查的数据，证实了美国和其它国家普遍存在的财务脆弱性现象。

The survey asked a simple question, 'If you were to face a $2,000 unexpected expense in the next month, how would you get the funds you need?' In the U.S., 24.9% of respondents reported being certainly able, 25.1% probably able, 22.2% probably unable and 27.9% certainly unable. The $2,000 figure 'reflects the order of magnitude of the cost of an unanticipated major car repair, a large co-payment on a medical expense, legal expenses, or a home repair,' the authors write. On a more concrete basis, the authors cite $2,000 as the cost of an auto transmission replacement and research that reported low-income families claim to need about $1,500 in savings for emergencies.

调查问了一个非常简单的问题：如果下个月你碰到2,000美元的意外开支，你如何筹措所需资金？在美国，24.9%的受访者表示肯定能筹措，25.1%的人说可能可以，22.2%的人说大概不能，27.9%的人说肯定不能。三位作者说，2,000美元大致相当于车子意外大修一次的费用；或是一次医疗支出中高额的自付费用；或是相当于一笔诉讼费用；或是一次家装修缮的费用。更具体地说，作者以更换一个自动变速箱需要2,000美元为例，研究了那些声称要动用大约1,500美元储蓄以应对意外情况的低收入家庭。

Financial fragility isn't limited to low-income groups. 'Households with socioeconomic markers of vulnerability (income, wealth, wealth losses, education, women, families with children) are more likely to be financially fragile, and substantially more so,' the authors write. 'The more surprising finding is that a material fraction of seemingly 'middle class' Americans also judge themselves to be financially fragile, reflecting either a substantially weaker financial position than one would expect, or a very high level of anxiety or pessimism. Both are important in terms of behavior and for public policy.'

财务脆弱性并不仅限于低收入群体。三位作者写道，在某些社会经济指标上较脆弱的家庭更有可能表现出财务脆弱性，且这种可能性会大很多。这些社会经济指标包括收入、财富、财富损失、教育程度、妇女以及有子女的家庭。三位作者写道，更令人吃惊的发现是，一些看似“中产阶级”的美国家庭却有很大一部分自认在家庭财务上是脆弱的。这要么反映出这部分家庭的财务状况比外界想象的要脆弱的多，要么这些家庭非常地焦虑或悲观。无论对于公共政策研究还是这些家庭的行为来说，上述两种可能解释都很重要。

Lusardi, Schneider and Tufano also looked at the ways in which people coped with an unexpected expense. Most would use multiple methods ranging from dipping into savings, asking for help from family and friends, using loans or credits cards, taking out payday loans or selling possessions.

陆莎迪、施耐德和图法诺同时也研究了人们应对意外支出的方式。大多数人的应对方式有以下几种：动用储蓄；向家人和朋友求助；贷款或使用信用卡；利用“发薪日贷款”或变卖资产。

'Taken together with those who would pawn their possessions, sell their home, or take out a payday loan, 25.7% of respondents who were asked about coping methods (equal to 18.6% of all respondents) would come up with the funds for an emergency by resorting to what might be seen as extreme measures,' the authors write. 'Along with the 27.9% of respondents who report that they could certainly not cope with an emergency, this suggests that approximately 46.5% of all respondents are living very close to the financial edge.'

三位作者写道，算上那些典当财物、变卖房产或利用发薪日贷款的人，在被问及应对方法的受访者中，共有25.7%的人（这相当于全体受访者的18.6%）会通过一些可能会被视作极端的手段筹措这笔紧急资金。再加上27.9%的肯定无法应对紧急情况的受访者，这样在全部受访者中，大约有46.5%的人活在非常接近财务困境的边缘。

Meanwhile, Lusardi, Schneider and Tufano also looked at how different countries compare. They consulted with local partners to set the number used in local currency at a comparable level. 'Perceived capacity to cope with an emergency is lowest in the U.S., U.K. and Germany, all countries in which 50% of households or more would probably or certainly be unable to come up with the emergency funds,' the authors wrote. 'France and Portugal occupy an intermediate position; 46% of respondents in Portugal would certainly or probably be unable to come up with the funds as would 37% of those in France. The highest levels of coping capacity are found in Canada (28% certainly or probably unable), Netherlands (27.9%), and Italy (20%).'

与此同时，陆莎迪、施奈德和图法诺也研究了不同国家间比较的情况。他们和当地合作伙伴交换了意见，调整了以当地货币计算的价格以便比较。三位作者写道，应对紧急情况能力的国家是美国、英国和德国。在这三个国家中，一半或超过一半的家庭可能或肯定无法筹措紧急资金。法国和葡萄牙的情况居中：在葡萄牙，46%的受访者肯定或可能无法筹措资金，在法国这一比例为37%。应对紧急情况能力的国家是加拿大（28%的人肯定或可能无法筹措资金）、荷兰（27.9%）和意大利（20%）。