在中国突然就东中国海(East China Sea, 中国称东海)一块繁忙的空域宣示权力一周半之后，围绕亚洲领土争端可能影响民航业务的担忧不断加剧。

 

More than 1,000 flights a day, some 6% of air traffic in east Asia, likely pass through the area, according to data from OAG, a U.K.-based flight-information provider. On Nov. 23, China declared the area to be an air-defense identification zone, or ADIZ-an extra buffer beyond a country's official air space, in which foreign planes may be asked to identify themselves and their flight plans.

根据英国航班信息提供商OAG的数据，每天有逾1,000架次航班（约为东亚航空班次的6%），可能通过这一区域。11月23日中国宣布这块空域为中国的防空识别区，即正式领空之外的额外缓冲区，在这个区域内，外国飞机可能被要求通报身份以及飞行计划。

 

China's declaration has already caused a split among the world's carriers over how to respond, since the new ADIZ-which was created over a set of disputed islands-overlaps ADIZ that already exist from Japan and Taiwan, which also claim the territory, as well as South Korea.

由于这一新的防空识别区（设在一系列争议岛屿上空）与日本、台湾及韩国现有的防空识别区有重叠，中国此举已然令全球航空公司就如何应对产生了分歧。日本和台湾也对这些岛屿宣告主权。

 

Chinese officials say that 55 airlines including those from the U.S. are obeying the new zone rules, which among other things require airlines passing through to file flight plans with China-and face possible military action if they're recalcitrant. But Japanese and South Korean airlines, which operate a major portion of the traffic through the zone-around 500 flights a day-are ignoring the rules.

中国官员称，包括美国公司在内的55家航空公司都遵守了新的防空识别区规定，根据规定，通过这一区域的飞机需要向中国提交飞行计划而且未遵守规定者可能面临军事行动。但是日本和韩国航空公司未予理会。经过这一区域的航班大多来自日本和韩国的航空公司――每天约500架次。

 

'Politics is politics. But safety should be placed at the forefront,' said Yi Shin-Juang, deputy director of air-traffic services at Taiwan's Civil Aeronautics Administration, explaining its decision to have its airlines obey China's newly imposed rules even as the Taiwanese government raises concerns over the ADIZ.

尽管台湾对中国防空识别区心存担忧，但是台湾民用航空局仍决定让其航空公司遵守中国新规定；该机构航管组副组长易心庄解释道，政治是政治，但是安全还是应该放在首位的。

 

Adding to the uncertainties, South Korea is considering responding to China's move by extending its own ADIZ to cover a submerged rock both countries claim. Some analysts are asking whether China might extend its ADIZ next into the South China Sea, where it is trying to assert sovereignty over islands that are also claimed by other nations like the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia.

令不确定性加剧的是，韩国正在考虑扩大防空识别区、覆盖两国均宣告主权的暗礁，以此回应中国的举动。一些分析人士现在猜测，中国下一步是否会将防空识别区拓展至南中国海上空；目前中国与菲律宾、越南和马来西亚对南中国海的一些岛屿存在主权争议。

 

'If China opts to repeat the (air-defense zone) fiasco in the South China Sea, this will risk destabilizing the region further,' said Daniel Tsang, founder and chief analyst at Aspire Aviation, a Hong Kong-based consultancy. 'The last thing airlines want to see at this stage, with the weak and anemic global economic recovery, would be a fray in bilateral ties that would harm business travel and leisure traffic,' he added.

香港咨询公司Aspire Aviation创始人兼首席分析师Daniel Tsang称，如果中国选择在南中国海重演防空识别区闹剧，那么将有可能给该地区的稳定带来进一步威胁；在全球经济复苏疲软乏力之际，航空公司目前阶段最不愿意看到的是双边关系紧张，冲击全球商务和休闲旅行。

 

Measuring the potential impact is tough. Air travel demand between China and Japan has fallen significantly during the past year and a half, amid territorial friction between the two nations, hurting profits of their key airlines. Japan's big airlines say they haven't yet seen a significant impact from their decision to defy China's new zone rules, although privately, an official from one carrier said the airline is concerned customers may become worried about safety.

估算潜在影响是很困难的。过去一年半，受领土争端影响，中日之间的航空旅行需求已经大大下降，对双方主要航空公司的利润都有冲击。日本一些大型航空公司称，尚未发现反抗中国新防空识别区规定的决定产生了显著影响，不过某航空公司的一位管理人士私下表示，该公司担心客户可能担忧安全问题。

 

The region's airlines have had awkward run-ins with defense zones before. When Taiwan's airlines began flying regularly into mainland China four years ago, routes to the northeastern cities of Qingdao and Dalian took jetliners briefly over Japan's ADIZ, and more than a dozen of those initial flights received emergency radio commands by Japanese authorities to divert, or face the threat of military interception, according to the Taiwan Civil Aeronautics Administration.

事实上，该地区的航空公司以前就曾在防空识别区有过尴尬遭遇。台湾民用航空局表示，四年前台湾航班开始定期飞往中国大陆时，飞往青岛和大连的航线需要短暂飞越日本的防空识别区，而最初的航班中有十多架飞机都收到了日本监管部门要求飞机改道的紧急无线电指令，如不听从则会面临日本军事拦截的威胁。

 

Taiwan's aviation regulator said the problem was that its airlines hadn't filed flight plans with Japan, since the routes passed only through Japan's defense zone and not official airspace. Japan asked Taiwan to file the plans, and it has complied ever since-similar to what's happening now with China's ADIZ-the regulator said.

台湾航空监管部门称，问题是台湾的航空公司当时都未向日本提交飞行计划，因为这些航线只是穿越日本的防空识别区而不是领空；日本要求台湾方面提交飞行计划，台湾此后也遵守了这一规定。这与目前中国防空识别区所发生的情况颇为相似。

 

Japan's defense ministry said its air force had scrambled jets eight times during that period to respond to Taiwanese planes, but declined to elaborate. Japan's foreign ministry said the country doesn't scramble for planes that aren't approaching Japan's territorial airspace, and doesn't ask for flight plans when the planes are only flying over Japan's ADIZ, but declined to comment further.

日本防卫省(Ministry of Defense)表示，在那段时期，日本航空自卫队曾八次出动飞机来应对台湾飞机。但防卫省没有透露详情。日本外务省(Ministry Of Foreign Affairs)表示，对于没有逼近日本领空的飞机，日本不会采取行动；如果飞机只是飞越日本防空识别区，日本也不会要求其提交飞行计划。但外务省拒绝发表更多评论。

 

Airlines and analysts say that despite the proliferation of defense zones there is little risk to safety of commercial craft because jetliners are clearly identified and their flight paths easily accessed. The International Air Transport Association, which represents the bulk of the world's carriers, said flight operations have been unaffected, and it hasn't received any reports of problems from member airlines.

航空公司和分析人士称，防空识别区的范围正在扩大，但并没有给商用飞机的安全带来太多风险，因为喷气式客机能够被清楚地识别，而且它们的飞行路线也很容易追踪。代表全球大部分航空公司的组织国际航空运输协会(International Air Transport Association)表示，航班运营并未受到影响，尚未收到任何来自航空公司会员的问题报告。

 

Still, some industry watchers warned that tensions could rise, especially if Japan and China drastically increase military activity over the zone. Old-timers point to the 1983 downing of Korean Air 003490.SE 0.00% Flight 007, which drifted off course into Soviet airspace at the height of the Cold War, and was shot down by a Soviet jet fighter that mistook it for a hostile military craft, killing all 269 people aboard.

不过，一些行业观察人士警告说，该地区的紧张局势可能升级，特别是如果日本和中国在该区域的军事活动显著增加。熟悉历史的人会想到1983年大韩航空公司(Korean Air Lines Co.) 007号航班被击落一事。当时正值冷战(Cold War)高潮，这架迷航的飞机误入苏联领空，被苏联战机当作敌方军机击落，导致机上269人全部遇难。

 

Experts say such mistakes are unlikely, given advances in technology, but can't be ruled out.

导师们称，由于科技的发展，现在已不太可能出现这种失误，但也不能排除这种可能性。

 

'It's hard to predict the outcome if confrontations of military jets from both sides take place,' said Humphrey Sun, a commercial pilot for China Eastern Airlines Corp. 600115.SH -2.28% who regularly flies between mainland China and Taiwan. He added that he believes the governments would make flight safety a top priority.

中国东方航空股份有限公司(China Eastern Airlines Co. 简称：东方航空)在中国大陆与台湾之间往来飞行的商用飞机飞行员孙慧(Humphrey Sun)表示，若中日双方军机对峙，则很难估计后果。他还表示，相信双方政府都会将飞行安全放在首位。

 

Japan last week raised concerns about ADIZ to the United Nation's International Civil Aviation Organization, saying that if countries unilaterally imposed rules on commercial planes flying through such zones, that could cause confusion and extra paperwork--not to mention worries over possible military enforcement. Japan called for more discussion on ADIZ at the organization's next meetings starting late February.

日本上周向联合国(United Nation)的国际民用航空组织(International Civil Aviation Organization)表达了对防空识别区的担忧。日本称，如果有国家单方面对飞越防空识别区的商用飞机制定规则，则可能引发混乱和额外的规则制定工作，更不要说对可能出现的军事干预的担忧。日本呼吁国际民用航空组织在明年2月末召开的下一次会议上就防空识别区展开更多讨论。