With the two-year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothersapproaching, economists are listing lessons learned. Among them isRichard Berner of Morgan Stanley。

 

　　随着雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)崩溃两周年的日子临近，经济学家们纷纷列出了从中吸取的教训。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)经济学家贝尔纳(Richard Berner)就是其中的一位。

 

　　Here are his five lessons, drawn from a presentation at recentconference sponsored last month by the Central Bank of Argentina andelaborated on in a note to clients last week:

 

　　以下就是贝尔纳列出的五大教训；他在为上个月阿根廷央行主办的一次会议准备的发言稿中列出了他的看法，并在上周的一份客户报告中进行了详细阐述：

 

　　1. A strong and well-regulated financial system should be the firstline of defense against financial shocks ....he more free-marketoriented we want our economies to be, the more we need officialsupervision and oversight of our financial institutions and markets.That's because truly free-market economies involve a high risk ofbusiness failure, and corresponding high risks to the financialinstitutions and investors that lend to and invest in those businesses.A key lesson from this crisis is that competition among lenders breedsinnovation, but also instability。

 

　　强大与监管得力的金融体系应该是抵御金融冲击的道防线。我们越希望我们的经济以自由市场为导向，就越需要对金融机构和市场实施官方的监督和管理。这是因为真正的自由市场经济包含了很高的企业破产风险，相应的，向这些企业投资和放贷的金融机构和投资者也面临着高风险。此次危机的一个重要教训就是贷款商之间的竞争既培育了创新，但也带来了不稳定性。

 

　　2. Aggressive and persistent policy responses are the second line ofdefense ... [F]rom past crises like Japan's lost decade, we learned thatthe persistence of policy support is also critical to facilitatebalance-sheet cleanup, offset the drag on the economy, and preventdeflation ... For market participants, understanding just how persistentpolicy support will be is important; they want central bankers to makea clear distinction between the end of easing, which is now underway,and exit strategies or the beginning of tightening, which lie ahead。

 

　　积极和持续的政策反应是第二道防线。从日本"消失的十年"等过去的危机中，我们可以发现，持续的政策支持同样非常关键，这能够推动清理资产负债表，消除拖累经济增长的因素，还能阻止通货紧缩。对市场参与人士来说，获知政府政策扶持的持续时间很重要；他们希望央行官员作出明确表述，区分宽松政策结束(目前正在进行)以及刺激政策退出，或是紧缩政策开始(未来将发生的)。

 

　　3. Macroprudential supervision and asset prices should both playbigger roles in monetary policy .... There is broad agreement that aglobal focus on systemic risk is needed. There is less agreement onexactly how to define and implement it。

 

　　宏观金融监管和资产价格都应当在货币政策中发挥更大的作用。各国普遍认同，系统性风险需要引起全球的关注。但这一问题如何具体限定以及如何实施，各国却基本没有达成共识。

 

　　4. Flexible exchange rates enhance the ability of monetary policy to respond to shocks。

 

　　灵活的汇率能增强货币政策应对危机的能力。

 

　　5. Global imbalances contributed to the crisis by allowing internalimbalances to grow. ... [R]ecession is helping to rebalance the US andglobal economies and markets. The question now: Will this rebalancingprocess be benign and sustainable for economies and markets, or will itbe disruptive? I worry about the latter because current US policies areexpanding rather than reducing imbalances, and officials elsewhere arelimiting exchange-rate adjustment。

 

　　全球失衡会导致各国内部失衡扩大，从而加剧危机。衰退正促使美国和全球其他经济体和市场重新回到平衡。目前的问题是：对经济体和市场来说，这种重新平衡过程是否是温和以及可持续的，还是会带来破坏？我担心会出现后面一种情况，因为美国当前的政策是在扩大而不是缩小失衡问题，而其他国家的官员正在限制汇率的调节作用。